Berfaedah

Seringkali berpikir manfaat apa yang sudah saya atribusikan kepada masyarakat dengan keilmuan yang saya miliki? Pertanyaan ini sungguh mengganggu karena ilmu formal yang saya punya bukan untuk membuat hal baru tapi mengubah yang sudah ada. Statistika menganalisis yang sudah ada agar menjadi lebih baik. Lebih ke memanfaatkan otak kiri daripada otak kanan.

Suatu waktu, sempat teringat kalau saya sudah lama tidak mencari inspirasi dari TED yang ada di tablet. Saya suka cari inspirasi dari Pinterest, Instagram, Toxel dan website lainnya. Tiba-tiba saja teringat mengapa saya tidak cari di situ dengan kata kunci Statistics dan berharap ada beberapa ceramah yang bisa menginspirasi.

Tunjukkan Padaku Datanya
Tanpa diduga, saya tidak menemukan beberapa ceramah tapi banyak. Senang sekali. Video pertama yang saya tonton adalah seorang perempuan PhD Statistics di AS yang bercerita dengan lucu tentang ke-nerd-an dia sebagai Statistician. Dia dan suaminya merekam data kesehatan setiap hari. Ketika si dokter bilang ini tidak normal saat dia cek suaminya ke IGD, orang statistik akan membandingkan dengan data populasi dan atau historis. Emang normal orang-orang di berapa dan normal suaminya di berapa. Padahal si dokter hanya pakai data suaminya di satu titik yakni hari itu. Saat dokter bilang suami Anda terkena sakit jantung, dia bilang tunjukkan padaku datanya. Intinya dia mau mengajak kita untuk merekam data kesehatan seperti tekanan darah, mungkin kadar gula, suhu dll tiap hari dan mesti di jam yang sama. Jadi kita sendiri bakal tau jika tubuh kita ada masalah karena tidak normal. Tidak normal karena menyimpang dari data rataan historis kita sendiri. Misal menyimpang satu simpangan baku atau dua, kalau mau nerd.

Ajari Statistika daripada Matematika
Setelah itu, ada ceramah singkat dari Profesor Matematika, dia bilang sekolah harusnya mengajarkan Statistika daripada Matematika. Dia bilang seperti itu sambil menegaskan bahwa iya saya Profesor Matematika. Karena matematika seperti aljabar, geometri dan lain-lain, ujung-ujungnya adalah kalkulus. Siapa yang menggunakan kalkulus dalam kehidupan sehari-hari? Sementara statistika seperti probabilitas lebih berguna. Kita lihat kegunaan statistika dalam politik: quick count, bisnis: kepuasan pelanggan, marketing: posisi merek, keuangan: analisis risiko dan model keuangan perusahaan, kedokteran: genetika dan lain-lain.

Peluang Kesalahan Penggandaan DNA
Kemudian video TED talk lainnya bercerita tentang peneliti genetika. Dia bercerita bagaimana evolusi terjadi dalam skup mikro. Sebaiknya Anda nonton acara “Cosmos” atau nonton film ” Lucy” untuk sedikit mengerti teori evolusi. Bisa disimpulkan dengan teori yang kini masih diyakini kebenarannya bahwa kita berasal dari satu titik sebelum terjadi ledakan besar, big bang. Dari situ terbentuk galaxi, sistem bintang, planet, satelit, lalu ada makhluk hidup dan ada lah manusia. Dalam film Lucy dan Cosmos diceritakan kalau kita mengopi DNA dari tetua. Pada saat proses pengggandaan ini terjadi kesalahan. Sehingga kita berbeda dengan moyang kita, si titik itu. Kenapa terjadi salah penggandaan DNA? Ini bisa diterangkan secara statistika. Dalam ceramah TED ini, peluang sederhana mengenai lempar koin (dua sisi, sementara DNA ada empat), peluang terjadi Kepala (K) Ekor (E) Kepala ternyata berbeda dengan peluang kemunculan KEE. Hehe… Padahal setiap melempar koin kan baik K dan E memiliki peluang kemunculan 50%. Ini baru dua sisi: K & E. Gimana peluang yang lebih ribet yang melibatkan empat sisi di DNA? Tonton aja videonya 😅

Analisis Statistik untuk Mengurangi Kriminalitas
Seorang penegak hukum di Amerika Serikat yang bukan dari latar belakang Statistika, menggunakan analisis Statistika untuk mengurangi kejahatan di AS. Dia bilang, sistem kerja saat ini lebih ke mengandalkan pengalaman. Termasuk saat posisi dia di level lebih tinggi karena pengalaman. Dia bilang, dengan menggunakan analisa Statistika, pengalaman bisa “dikalahkan”. Hasilnya, kriminalitas turun signifikan. Wow!

Grafik yang Cantik
Seorang Profesor dari Swedia menampilkan data eksplorasi dengan sangat cantik dan menarik plus ditambah humor. Salah satu grafik sangat simpel dia tunjukkan dengan animasi. Grafik itu hanya memetakan hubungan pendapatan per kapita dan harapan hidup negara maju: UK dan US serta negara berkembang Tiongkok dan India. Di zaman kolonial, pertumbuhan dua variabel ekonomi negara maju cepat sekali ke arah kanan atas atau semakin membaik. Sebaliknya, di negara berkembang yang terjajah, angkanya tetap, keras kepala, ga mau bergeser selama bertahun-tahun di sebelah kiri bawah grafik. Namun setelah kolonialisme berakhir, negara berkembang berakselerasi ke area kanan atas mengejar UK dan US yang juga bergerak ke kanan atas dengan kecepatan yang lebih lambat. Intinya, dia mau bilang bahwa cara menampilkan data merupakan hal penting. Yang lebih penting: penjajahan harus dimusnahkan di muka bumi! Masih ada yang mau bilang Jakarta lebih baik pas dijajah Belanda atau masih mau bilang penjajah Inggris bikin kebun raya dan mau bilang itu lebih baik?

Nah, itu sedikit video-video dari TED tentang Statistika yang menginspirasi dan membuka mata bahwa hey, Statistika juga bisa berfaedah bagi umum. Selama ini saya hanya bilang ke diri saya sendiri bahwa apa yang saya lakukan sebagai analis juga berguna bagi masyarakat. Saya mengasuh daily & weekly report, IPO report, special report (yang menggunakan analisa statistik lebih canggih dan susah) agar investor memiliki ide untuk meningkatkan kinerja portofolio investasinya. Portofolio untuk siapa? Untuk para pembayar premi asuransi, BPJS dan pensiunan. Memastikan bahwa nanti di masa tua, masyarakat memiliki cukup dukungan keuangan di saat mereka sudah kurang produktif lagi karena usia. Mereka tidak perlu (sedikit) membebani generasi produktif, anak muda, anak-anaknya. Dengan komposisi penduduk Indonesia yang sedang berubah dari piramida (mirip sebaran normal di mana penduduk tua lebih sedikit) ke bentuk bel terbalik (di mana penduduk tua dan muda hampir sama), beban kaum muda masa kini jangan sampai bertambah dengan beban kaum tuanya.

Namun hal ini tidak membuat saya puas. Tetep saya harus mencari hal-hal yang bisa berguna bagi masyarakat dengan keilmuan yang saya miliki. Kalau berguna dengan harta mungkin semua bisa: tinggal bersedekah duit tapi dengan keilmuan, kita bersedekah ide.

8

Some say that 8 is one of lucky numbers besides 7, 9 and 10. Nonetheless, I am not a type of person that groups something without any valuations. I treat all numbers similarly, unless number 7 since it is my birth date :P. Why is it 8? Because, most of operating systems I installed recently are 8 version.

After struggling on updating all operating systems on my gadgets and computers, at last I successfully upgrading all of them. iPad Air and Lumia 1020 phone were the easiest to be updated. They are now installed the iOS 8 and WP 8.1, respectively. The hardest one was upgrading my laptop. I missed whole data in my external hard disk including the files that I was working on and must be submitted in no time. Thank God that my client understood my condition after I had emailed him that I would send the report longer than expected due to the missing files. The culprit was the Disk Utility app on Mac that wiped out all files in my external hard disk that is designated for Mac only. WTF Apple! If I was an American, I could sue you!!! Continue reading 8

Hong Kong dengan Pemandu Wisata

Berkunjung ke Hong Kong di 21-24 Oktober 2014 ini melengkapi “moda” trip yang saya alami, mulai dari rombongan banyak, rombongan sedikit, berdua, sendiri dan kali ini menggunakan pemandu wisata. Enaknya, sampai hari H-1, saya ga tau bakal nginap di mana, pergi ke mana, petanya di mana dan ongkosnya berapa. Saya bisa focus ke kerjaan.

Hari pertama, setelah berkumpul dengan rombongan kantor dan para klien, saya terbang menggunakan baju Superman. Mendarat di Hong Kong International Airport, pemandu Indonesia yang namaya Putra ditemanin pemandu local yang namanya Silvie, orang Hong Kong asli berbahasa Indonesia sangat fasih – rupanya ibunya orang Bandung dan cuma bisa ngomong Sunda: “kumaha” (jadi inget temen gw yang orang Situbondo, kata Sunda pertama yang dia bisa juga “kumaha”).  Dari bandara, kami langsung naik ferry menuju Macao untuk berjudi, hahaha…. Continue reading Hong Kong dengan Pemandu Wisata

Sail Away Karimunjawa (3)

The second day!

We had booked a boat trip by phone, helped by Pak Abdul. We rented Pak Budi’s boat privately to sail away the islands in Karimunjawa area. We could only visit islands in the West side of Karimunjawa island thanks to the East wind season.

The boat was about to get inside the port. To get there, we have to wait Express Bahari sailed away because no one is allowed to get inside the port without ticket. Hence, we waited outside the port until Express Bahari departed.

After it departed, we hopped on Pak Budi’s boat. We sat on the roof of Karimunjawa’s traditional boat. I saw different designs of traditional boat from one area to others. This was the first time seeing a roof in a traditional boat. It must be suitable for local needs.

The first island was Cemara Kecil. The furthest island we visited that day. Its beach sands are white, same with Tanjung Gelam’s. Its seashore is very wide as we could swim 100 meters from the beach. We snorkeled there when Pak Budi was shooting fishes, as our lunch menu, in the deep sea. He took very long time to shoot fishes. My knee experienced an injury after hit a dead coral. It was bleeding but not much. I did not give any treatment to cure the injury, instead, I let the sea water healed it. It worked!

We worried about Pak Budi. I did not know how many hours we spent time there waiting Pak Budi since I did not see the watch. Finally, Pak Budi showed up bringing four fishes. Relieved. There were three different colors of parrot fish and another fish that I forgot the name. We paid Rp30,000 for harboring the boat there then we leaved for Menjangan Kecil island.

This sailing was very dangerous. It was raining in front of us. It was very windy as well. As such, the waves are pretty huge. We sailed toward the East, against the wind. It was like in the movies. Pak Budi and Alex held something in the boat tightly but I did not give a f*. I just sat in the middle of the boat and spread my legs to cover stuffs and spread my hands to increase stability. Hahaha… Nonetheless, I had no balls to take my Lumia 1020 or my Kissxthree to capture such a dramatic moment. So no image but believe me it really happened.

Luckily, our path did not pass the rainy area. It was on the left side of our path. After we passed it, the wind was lighter and the waves were way calmer. It relaxed our stresses. We then arrived at the second island to lunch.

Pak Budi prepared stuffs to grill the fishes. Alex joined him and prepared the secret recipes a’la Greek, like he did for the first dinner. While they were prepared the foods, I took a stroll the island by capturing through Kissxthree lens. There was a stall there with electricity generated by solar cells. There was a guy with mental health disorder a.k.a crazy who cleans the island. He spoke by himself complaining bules from Holand which he said “Londo” that asked him the tariff of pee. He also consistently spoke that the amount of visitors is pretty high that day. “Wakeh!” he said. After we enjoyed the fishes, I paid the harbor fare of Rp30,000. We were the last boat leaving the island for snorkeling spot.

It was a nice snorkeling spot despite the corals have already dead. There were huge corrals c. three meters diameter. It must be colorful and very beautiful back then. Before we snorkeled, Pak Budi threw rices, to attract fishes. Instead of fed them rices, we fed them Taro. Apparently they liked it. Haha… Taro was way better to maintain fishes in group since it was floating longer than rices. Maybe a fish shouted “Enough with rices and Taros, we want rendang and Starbucks!!” Hahaha….

We leaved for shark aqua farm in Menjangan Besar island. Previously Alex had no gut to get inside the pool to swim with sharks. At last, he got courage when some guys had already in the pools. Haha… I could not join since my knee was still bleeding. I didn’t wanna risk my only left leg.

Before we went back, we bought a live red snapper at an aquaculture, not far from the shark pool. We planed to eat it for dinner that night.

*The trip boat fare was Rp450,000 per boat. A live red snapper price was Rp100,000, expensive.

Sail Away Karimunjawa (2)

Right after the boat arrived, we asked a local the location of Karimunjawa Inn. It’s just a walk of about 300 meters, he said. In our mindset, locals often discount the distance. They say the distance is only 100 meters when in fact it is 300 meters. Hence, we reserved energy by more than twofold to walk while bringing heavy bags to the Inn. Apparently, it was indeed 300 meters, he was true, hahaha…

Seeing us showed up, with no doubt, Pak Abdul, the guy who was responsible for the Inn, welcomed us by asking “Pak Alex ya?” I have no idea how Pak Abdul could recognize Alex from his appearance. Previously, Pak Abdul and Alex had several conversations via telephone. Yes, Alex’s voice is easy to detect. Nevertheless, Pak Abdul’s ability to project the voice into appearance is rare. Hahaha…

Pak Abdul led us to our room. It was located on the hill so we could see the view of west side ocean. The perfect view along with fresh air and low sound decibel made our vacation perfecto!

Before Sunset, we rented a motorcycle and went to the most beautiful beach in the island, according to Pak Abdul. It is Tanjung Gelam beach, pretty far from the Inn. We then did the first swim there while Mr Sun was drowning. We ate young coconut before went back. On our way back, accidentally, we found the town center (alun-alun) as I asked a guy in a military office the location of BRI’s ATM. There were seafood, young coconut and souvenir stalls.

We did our first dinner there. Alex brought secret recipes from Jakarta for grilled seafood. It was dominated by olive oil, lemon and greek salad with olives. Ask Alex for details, ya! In the most east seafood stall, Alex demonstrated his ability in making seafood recipes. I just watched him. All I know is eating, not cooking. Haha… I was waiting Alex on the table on field. We ate calamri, ikan janggut and red snapper.

After our stomaches were full, we got back to the Inn and I took a tight sleep like a dead fish. However, Alex could not sleep well due to the itchy linen.

Sail Away Karimunjawa (1)

This was a trip planned by a colleague of mine, Alex. I just agreed the plans he made. It was such a dangerous getaway, in my opinion. I have to take a domestic flight from Jakarta to Semarang, then take a bus or shuttle service to Jepara. The most dangerous mode is taking a two-hour trip by a boat from Jepara to Karimunjawa’s port. In Karimunjawa, I should sail away the ocean to do a trip boat visiting islands in Karimunjawa circumstances. I have to reverse these trips to get back home. It is danger, yes or no? As such, I posted an apologize status in a social media, just in case.

We took the first flight of Lion Air’s Jakarta to Semarang aircraft. It scheduled to take off at 5.40 a.m. So I woke up at 3 a.m. The aircraft has already in the runway track to take off. The machine’s sound decibel increased significantly and the aircraft accelerated. At full throttle, a pilot cancelled the take off and took the plane to taxi track. The pilot announced that he saw an alarm signal in the cockpit. He wanted to make sure whether it was a technical fault signal or it was only a false signal. The aircraft went back to boarding area to be checked by technicians. A flight attendant announced passengers to wait circa 15 minutes while the technicians did their jobs. I bet the signal is true, something broken in the aircraft but both pilot and flight attendant did not let us know what it was.

Some passangers asked the flight attendant to change the flight to the next schedule. There was a flight at 8.00 a.m. A passanger opted to get off the plane as he said “daripada sport jantung”. This was the first time I experienced this s*. The bright side was that the signals did work on this aircraft and the pilot did a very good job to cancel the take off. I thank God. We could not delay the flight by taking the next schedule because we have to sync with boat schedule i.e. at 14.00. As expected, the plane took off circa 15 minutes after reparation.

We landed safely at 8 in Ahmad Yani airport. We ordered an airport taxi to the downtown (Jawa Tengah’s Tourist Information Center) to take a shuttle service to Jepara. The tariff was Rp30,000. Unfortunately, the first schedule was at 7 and the next was at 10. It was unlikely for us to take it. We decided to go to Purboyo bus terminal by taxi. The fare was Rp30,000.

There are no aircon buses to Jepara. We took a metromini-like bus with full dangdut music. While driving, the driver did send text and consistently checked his cellphone and sometimes made a call. Likewise Kopaja, he drove like crazy. The fare was Rp15,000. This trip was expected to consume a two-hours time. On the way from Kudus to Jepara, the traffic was heavy in some areas as some parts of the road was under reparation. The local Govt opted to construct the road by concrete instead of asphalt.

The bus was in complete standstill in the traffic. A friend of mine got off the bus to take a piss. In no time, the bus took over other stand still vehicles in full speed. The bus then took a right turn and maintained the high speed. I panicked how to stop the bus. I yelled “Stop pak ada yang ketinggalan!!” The bus then stopped and a friend of mine showed up after sprinted several meters. Hahaha…

It was about 15 minutes to Jepara. There were vacant seats in the rear side. A local girl asked a friend of mine to sit there. He took his bags and sat there. While doing conversation, the girl touched his legs and pinched his cheek. Hahaha… I bet she is a hooker. He was saved by the bell. We arived at our destination, at last.

We ordered becaks to go to Kartini port. Apparently, we have to take tickets, which we had ordered them online, from Express Bahari office before the port. Arrived at 11.00, we took a brunch at local food stall there. After did a Jum’at prayer, we headed to boarding room and met a family which sat next to us on the aircraft. We boarded at 13.00 and the boat started to sail at 14.00, with accordance to schedule.

Our boat experienced a headwind form the East as the East wind season took its turn in the area. The right side of the boat windows demonstrated dramatic waves as an impact of the East wind. Passangers screamed like they were in amusement park. In the half end trip, the waves became calmer. Alhamdulillaah we arrived safely in Karimunjawa.

You Do Something About It!

Saya ga begitu suka nonton film juga drama. Tapi drama ini bikin saya pengen nonton terus dan sukses nonton dari 01×01 sampai 09×24. Drama tersebut adalah How I Met Your Mother.

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Tiap nonton serial ini, saya suka bercermin ke kehidupan sendiri. Pertemanan bff yang selalu berakhir gagal. Temen SD – SMP, sekarang entah kemana. Gara-garanya, pas SMA saya ga lagi tinggal di rumah orang tua. Jadi jarang banget ketemu mereka dan main-main lagi. Despite I want keep around them but I did nothing.

Temen SMU juga begitu. Masih keep contact but with low frequency. Padahalmpas kelas tiga, perpisahan di Ujung Genteng pake acara nangis-nangisan. Temen di Pesantren juga yang masak bergiliran tapi makan bisa habis kurang dari lima menit, sampai sekarang udah jarang ketemu, malah bisa dibilang ga pernah contact mereka lagi.

Temen kuliah, my very best friend, dia menjauhi semua orang with no reason. Nikah ga ngasih tau dan ga ngundang-ngundang. Tinggal satu temen yang dari SMU sampai kuliah terus bareng. Eh dia ga disangka tinggalin Indonesia dan tinggal di Eropa. Sementara temen yang satu lagi, pulang ke kampung halamannya dan menjadi PNS di sana. So here I am, I am all alone.

Di dunia kerja, I vow not to do this mistake all over again. I still keep contact with my (ex) colleagues and I will always do that. Dapet temen dr internet: bloggers dan juga temen2 jalan. Bikin juga group kecil tapi gagal, I ruined it. That’s why I will never ruin it anymore by doing the silly thing. I prohibit myself to fall in love with my friend, unless I really want keep her forever in my life.

So… This is my friendships story. Gampang banget buat lupain temen. Pas deket ngerasa seperti I don’t know how to live without them. Tapi sekarang rasa itu telah pergi, meski di Facebook mereka lengkap. Hanya satu yang bisa menjaga pertemanan: you do something about it! Simply call them, setup a meeting, just chatting while sip a cup of coffee or karaoke. Pay the bills, sometime, if have enough money. And the most important thing is that marry the girl that you’d like to spend the rest of your life. Since, she will be your best friend while your friends are not around, anymore.